Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.092944 2.214564 2.342538 2.487753 2.648597 2.822038 3.024205
2025-04-27 1.942491 2.114407 2.304275 2.531458 2.798537 3.105974 3.491809
2025-05-04 1.845571 2.048806 2.281072 2.569991 2.925410 3.356369 3.931795
2025-05-11 1.744151 1.963802 2.221157 2.550718 2.970546 3.501154 4.247125
2025-05-18 1.663614 1.894991 2.171739 2.534943 3.011846 3.637285 4.559546
2025-05-25 1.592853 1.832015 2.123072 2.513156 3.039052 3.751934 4.850605
2025-06-01 1.531104 1.775736 2.077966 2.490583 3.060193 3.856152 5.135309
2025-06-08 1.486705 1.738237 2.053587 2.492069 3.111995 4.005778 5.507469
2025-06-15 1.456182 1.716318 2.047296 2.516151 3.195581 4.208136 5.994320
2025-06-22 1.405210 1.665337 1.999654 2.479376 3.186710 4.266174 6.240209
2025-06-29 1.357049 1.615939 1.951605 2.438758 3.168235 4.305694 6.456545
2025-07-06 1.307687 1.563070 1.896522 2.384897 3.125443 4.300800 6.586821
2025-07-13 1.287668 1.549010 1.894327 2.408033 3.204104 4.507636 7.175742
2025-07-20 1.274637 1.543658 1.903614 2.448097 3.312008 4.776539 7.956377
2025-07-27 1.261237 1.537060 1.910506 2.484443 3.416145 5.050926 8.824215
2025-08-03 1.231602 1.507011 1.882751 2.466218 3.427786 5.154541 9.314082
2025-08-10 1.204796 1.479950 1.858119 2.451302 3.443502 5.267064 9.857722
2025-08-17 1.177850 1.451822 1.830831 2.430695 3.447577 5.356573 10.366246
2025-08-24 1.152160 1.424676 1.803966 2.409338 3.448587 5.439613 10.883133
2025-08-31 1.134315 1.408037 1.791833 2.410744 3.489988 5.611231 11.728770
2025-09-07 1.123303 1.400697 1.793042 2.433528 3.571581 5.879674 13.006608
2025-09-14 1.097258 1.371132 1.760088 2.398732 3.543762 5.901693 13.437712
2025-09-21 1.071370 1.341198 1.725744 2.360278 3.506750 5.899060 13.782171